An economic cycle is a recurring pattern of expansion and contraction in the economic activity of a country or region over time. It is characterised by alternating phases of growth and recession, with fluctuations in output, employment, income, and aggregate demand.

Because economic cycles do not follow a regular timetable — they can extend over many years or occur within shorter intervals — economists have established several distinct cycle types, each classified according to its duration.

Short-term cycles

Short-term cycles, lasting between two and four years, are also known as Kitchin cycles, after the statistician Joseph Kitchin who first studied them.

Kitchin examined the activity cycles of firms within an economy, focusing on the adjustments businesses make in response to shifts in demand, supplier prices, and lending interest rates.

Kuznets cycles

Kuznets cycles — also referred to as 'long swings' — represent long-term fluctuation patterns in economic activity, identified by economist Simon Kuznets.

These cycles last between 15 and 30 years, placing them between the shorter Juglar cycles and the longer Kondratiev waves.

Kuznets linked these cycles primarily to infrastructure investment and demographic change, in particular variations in birth rates and migration flows.

Kondratiev cycles

Kondratiev long waves have an estimated duration of between 40 and 60 years and were studied by Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev.

According to his theory, these cycles are associated with major technological transformations that shape the capitalist system, generating periods of economic expansion followed by phases of slowdown and crisis.

Juglar cycles

Juglar cycles last approximately seven to eleven years and were studied by French physician and economist Clément Juglar, based on his analysis of economic fluctuations, principally during the nineteenth century.

Juglar identified a relationship between the phases of expansion and contraction in economic activity and changes in investment, the labour market, and inflation.

Source: Diário Económico
Original article: https://www.diarioeconomico.co.mz/?p=555613