Oil prices are rising on Friday (30), with the European benchmark surpassing $117 per barrel, as investors grow increasingly anxious over the direction of the Middle East conflict ahead of the United States midterm elections.

Brent crude for the North Sea, the European benchmark, advanced 1.89% to $117.05 per barrel on Friday morning, following a gain of more than 2% on Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, rose 1.67% to $103.70 per barrel. Natural gas traded in Amsterdam climbed more than 2%, moving back above $100 per megawatt-hour.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports through the Strait of Hormuz held close to their highest level since the start of the war in October, though they remain below one third of pre-conflict volumes. Oil flows have recovered more quickly, returning to levels close to those seen before the war broke out. Even so, Brent has traded predominantly above $100 since September.

Uncertainty remains high, both regarding the trajectory of the conflict and the likely response of oil markets. A fresh escalation is considered the most probable outcome, with Brent seen hovering around $115 in that scenario.

Should the conflict reignite, analysts consider it unlikely that oil would repeat the surge seen in March and reach $150 per barrel. A range of $120 to $130 is viewed as more plausible, for three reasons: markets have already priced in further disruptions; the world is adapting — for example, through greater uptake of electric vehicles in China — and any escalation may prove short-lived.