Oil prices are rising more than 2% on Wednesday (28) after the Wall Street Journal reported that the United States warned several Gulf states to prepare for a possible escalation of conflict following the US midterm elections, scheduled for 3 November.

The American newspaper reported that US President Donald Trump has not yet made a final decision, but is inclined to proceed with an intense, short-duration military offensive. In recent days, Washington has reinforced its military presence in the Middle East, dispatching a third aircraft carrier group to the Persian Gulf.

By mid-morning, North Sea Brent crude, the European benchmark, was up 2.09% at $116.26 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, advanced 2.30% to $102.20. Amsterdam-traded natural gas, meanwhile, is again approaching €100 per megawatt-hour, gaining 1.90% to trade at €97.64.

“The market is pricing in a higher probability of a renewed escalation,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING Groep, quoted by Bloomberg. “Oil prices remain sensitive to developments in the Persian Gulf, particularly regarding what steps the US might take should it decide to act following the midterm elections,” the analyst added.

In Israel, the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot is running close to the bloc led by incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to results tallied through the early hours of Wednesday. Forming a government under these conditions could prove extremely difficult, as no agreement between the two blocs is anticipated, raising the possibility of a return to fresh elections.

However, according to Robert Yawger, director of the energy futures division at Mizuho Securities, “there is a high probability that President Donald Trump could lose his ally in the war against Iran, Benjamin Netanyahu.” Eisenkot has presented himself as a more moderate candidate, though he has stated on multiple occasions that Iran’s nuclear programme must be eliminated.