Oil prices are edging lower on Thursday, 29 October, as fresh diplomatic moves appear to be tempering investor concerns over a potential escalation of the Middle East conflict ahead of the US midterm elections on 3 November.

Brent crude, the European benchmark, is down 0.46% to $114.76 per barrel on Thursday morning, after gaining more than 1% in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, is off 0.74% at $101.99 per barrel. Meanwhile, natural gas traded in Amsterdam — which briefly surpassed €100 per megawatt-hour on Wednesday — is retreating 2.76% to €97.57.

Against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tension, with several US media outlets reporting the possibility of an attack following the midterm elections, US Vice-President JD Vance made contact with Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s principal security body. The development was first reported by The Wall Street Journal and later confirmed by President Donald Trump, who described the outreach as solely an offer of medical assistance.

Trump told Axios that negotiations are continuing through intermediaries, while reiterating that he is uncertain whether they will yield results. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also stated that Tehran will continue to give diplomatic channels an opportunity.

“News like this can move prices,” Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth Group, told Bloomberg. “Any hint of communication between senior officials on both sides can be enough to trigger some profit-taking and shave off a little of that risk premium,” she added.

In the physical oil market, however, signals remain mixed. Saudi Arabian exports are holding close to wartime highs, despite attacks on the kingdom’s energy infrastructure and on tankers attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. In the United States, crude inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels last week, reaching their lowest level since July.