Prices of goods and services in Mozambique rose by 0.48% in October, accelerating from the 0.16% recorded in September, according to data released on Monday (9) by the National Statistics Institute (INE). The increase was driven primarily by higher prices for food products, transport and restaurant services.

According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), monthly inflation picked up pace in October, following September’s return to positive price growth after two consecutive months of deflation.

The divisions of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, Restaurants, Hotels, Cafés and Similar Establishments, and Transport were the largest contributors to the price increase, with impacts of 0.29, 0.08 and 0.05 percentage points, respectively.

Among the products recording the largest price increases were lettuce, up 9.8%, onions (5.7%), second-hand light motor vehicles (5.4%), fresh fish (2.8%), tomatoes (1.6%), horse mackerel (1.4%) and full meals at restaurants (0.9%).

According to INE, these products together contributed approximately 0.25 percentage points to the monthly price variation. Partially offsetting the increase, price reductions in selected products — most notably charcoal — subtracted around 0.03 percentage points from monthly inflation.

“The evolution recorded in October thus evidences the persistence of price pressures, particularly in the food and transport sectors, with implications for household expenditure and for the inflation trajectory through to the end of the year,” INE stated.

The INE report also indicates that accumulated inflation between January and October reached 5.50%, compared with 4.99% recorded through September. Year-on-year inflation, which compares prices with those of the same month in the previous year, stood at 6.32%, virtually unchanged from the 6.31% registered in September.

Despite the price dynamics, year-on-year inflation remains below the government’s 2026 forecast of approximately 7%. Transport and food products continue to exert significant pressure on the cost of living for Mozambican households. In cumulative inflation terms, these two categories contributed 2.14 and 1.85 percentage points, respectively.

On a year-on-year basis, transport prices rose by 15.06%, while food products and non-alcoholic beverages recorded an increase of 8.56%.

Between January and October, diesel, urban and suburban semi-collective passenger transport, fresh fish, petrol, taxi services, onions and cabbage were among the main drivers of price increases. Together, these goods and services contributed approximately 2.93 percentage points to accumulated inflation.

Price developments are taking place against a backdrop in which Banco de Moçambique continues to monitor inflationary risks, particularly those associated with fuel costs and transport.

At its most recent monetary policy committee meeting, held at the end of September, the central bank decided to hold its benchmark MIMO interest rate at 9.25%, reiterating its view that inflation will remain in single digits over the medium term, despite risks stemming from the fuel crisis linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

The latest data show an acceleration in monthly inflation, even as the year-on-year indicator remains relatively stable. Mozambique closed 2025 with an annual inflation rate of 3.23%, below the 4.15% recorded in 2024 and the 5.3% seen in 2023. The country had faced a period of heightened inflationary pressure in July 2022, when the year-on-year rate approached 13%.