The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects solid growth across most Portuguese-speaking economies through 2027, with Angola accelerating and Cabo Verde and Timor-Leste maintaining robust momentum, according to the World Economic Outlook released on Tuesday (13).

According to IMF data for Sub-Saharan Africa, Angola is forecast to grow 4.4% in 2026, up from an estimated 3.1% in 2025, before easing to 3.3% in 2027. Inflation is expected to remain elevated but on a downward trajectory, declining from 20.2% this year to 10.6% in 2026 and 10.2% in 2027.

Cabo Verde is set to remain among the best-performing lusophone African economies, with growth of 5% in both 2026 and 2027, following an estimated expansion of 6.3% in 2025. Inflation is projected to stay contained at 1.2% this year, rising to 2.8% by 2027. The IMF also forecasts a stable unemployment rate of 8.5% across all three years under review.

In Guinea-Bissau, economic growth is expected to slow slightly from 5.8% in 2025 to 4.7% in 2026, before recovering to 4.9% in 2027. Inflation is projected to range between 2.1% and 2.5%, while the current account deficit is expected to remain elevated, oscillating between 5.7% and 7% of GDP.

Mozambique is forecast to stage a gradual recovery following an estimated contraction of 0.2% in 2025. The IMF projects growth of 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. Inflation is expected to rise progressively to 5.6% and 6.8% respectively, while the external deficit will remain very significant, equivalent to 41% of GDP in 2026 and 37.8% in 2027.

For São Tomé and Príncipe, the IMF anticipates modest economic expansion of just 0.4% in 2026, accelerating to 1.9% in 2027. By contrast, inflation is expected to rise to 11% this year before retreating to 9.6% in 2027.

Among the remaining lusophone economies outside Africa, the IMF projects a slowdown in Brazil’s economic growth from 2.2% in 2026 to 1.9% in 2027, reflecting still-restrictive monetary conditions needed to return inflation to target, a gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, and uncertainty in the global economy.

Timor-Leste’s economy is forecast to expand 4% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027, following an estimated growth rate of 4.5% in 2025. Inflation is expected to remain subdued at 2.1% and 2.2% in 2026 and 2027 respectively. The current account deficit, however, is set to remain very high, equivalent to 38.5% of GDP in 2026 and 38.4% in 2027. Meanwhile, Portugal’s economic growth has been revised to 2.1% this year and 1.9% in 2027.

The IMF underscored that global economic activity continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by momentum in the technology sector, available financial buffers, and the capacity of economies to adapt to the impact of geopolitical tensions. Nevertheless, the institution forecasts a slowdown in global growth to 3.1% in 2026, followed by a recovery to 3.4% in 2027. Global inflation is projected to rise to 4.7% in 2026 before retreating to 4.1% the following year.

According to the institution, energy-importing economies not integrated into global technology value chains face the most difficult outlook.