Oil is posting modest gains on Thursday, 12 November, after briefly touching two-month lows overnight, as crude production in the Middle East continues to rise and no new developments have emerged in the stand-off between the United States and Iran.

North Sea Brent — the European benchmark — is up 0.52% at US$93.24 per barrel, having already rallied 1.4% in the previous session. West Texas Intermediate — the US benchmark — is advancing 0.34% to US$86.81 per barrel, while natural gas traded in Amsterdam is jumping 2.20% to €88.56 per megawatt-hour.

Crude production in Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest exporter of the commodity, rose 26% in October, reaching one of the highest monthly output levels recorded in years. Iraq also saw production climb significantly, approaching levels seen before the onset of the war.

Even so, there are few signs that the conflict is close to resolution. The secretary of the Supreme National Security Council stated that Iran would not remove “a single atom” of enriched nuclear material from the country — one of Washington’s key conditions for advancing negotiations.

“Supply is recovering, but it depends on workarounds rather than safe shipping routes, so the risk of disruption persists,” ANZ Group Holdings analysts Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes wrote in a note seen by Bloomberg. “With both sides still very far apart, markets will continue to price in a geopolitical premium, despite the recovery in production recorded in October,” they added.