Around 210 million American voters will decide on Tuesday, 3 November, which party — Republican or Democrat — will control the United States Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump’s second presidential term.

At stake are all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, the lower chamber of Congress, and roughly one third of the 100 seats in the Senate, the upper chamber. Thirty-six states are also electing their governors on the same day, along with a range of other state and local officials.

According to wire service Lusa, the midterm elections are expected to follow the customary pattern of voter punishment directed at the incumbent administration — but for Trump and the Republicans, they could mark the end of their absolute dominance over the country’s political institutions.

Although Trump’s name does not appear on the ballot, he has made a point of placing himself at the centre of the campaign over recent weeks.

“Imagine that I’m also on the ballot,” he repeatedly urged supporters at rallies for Republican candidates, also promising to give every American adult citizen five thousand dollars should the party win. In the final stretch of the campaign, Trump further announced a one-million-dollar reward for anyone reporting alleged electoral fraud.

Republicans currently control both chambers of Congress. Losing at least one of them would complicate the passage of Trump’s legislative agenda during the last two years of his term and would allow Democrats to open parliamentary investigations into the Republican administration.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans hold a slim majority of 218 members — precisely the number required to secure a majority. States such as Texas, Ohio and Iowa frequently appear in polling as contested electoral battlegrounds where a shift in results could alter the balance of power.

In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 seats, against 45 Democrats and two independents.

Polls point to a Democratic advantage, with the party having led Republican rivals in voting-intention surveys for several months. Over the weekend, Democrats led with 51.5 per cent against 43.1 per cent for Republicans, according to the polling average published by RealClearPolling.

Trump Faces Risk of Political Deadlock

A potential Republican defeat could transform the final two years of Trump’s term — which ends in 2028 — into a period of heightened political difficulty, placing the President in the position of a “lame duck”: a head of state with a diminished capacity to advance his political agenda.

Faced with that scenario, Trump has already signalled his strategy. “I think I’m going to become Mr Veto,” he said in an interview with Fox News.

Recent polls indicate that Americans are expected to vote primarily on the basis of economic conditions, with rising fuel prices, housing costs and healthcare expenditure placing increasing pressure on household budgets.

Reproductive rights also remain among the electorate’s top concerns, alongside immigration and the state of democracy in the United States.

The war conducted by the United States and Israel against Iran, as well as the rapid growth of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data centres, has introduced new concerns related to security, employment and energy costs.

Another notable feature of the cycle is the increase in early voting. More than 50 million Americans had already cast their ballots — approximately ten million more than in the 2022 midterm elections — according to data from the Election Lab at the University of Florida.

Among those who have already voted are Trump himself, who cast his ballot on 24 October in Florida, and Pope Leo XIV, a native of Chicago, who voted by mail, as announced by the Vatican last Friday.

There is no prior record of a head of the Catholic Church participating in a United States election, lending historic significance to the announcement.

Turnout in midterm elections is traditionally lower than in presidential contests. Since 1944, average voter participation has been approximately 42 per cent in midterms, compared with 58 per cent in presidential elections.

The new composition of the United States Congress is expected to be sworn in on 3 January 2027.