Wall Street closed mixed on Monday, 12 October, in a lower-liquidity session due to the Columbus Day public holiday, as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of the start of the third-quarter corporate earnings season. The S&P 500 edged down 0.06% to 7,807.24 points, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.44% to 27,245.90 points, weighed by technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, advancing 0.38% to 51,850.55 points, supported by gains in energy and banking sector stocks.

The session was also shaped by sharp swings in oil prices amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and growing investor concern over the impact of energy costs on inflation.

During the morning, crude prices retreated after US President Donald Trump proposed an energy-sector ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude for December delivery fell more than 1.3% to US$103.32 per barrel at its intraday low, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November delivery lost 1.69% to US$90.30 per barrel.

The trend reversed in the afternoon, following fresh statements from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on attacks against Russian energy infrastructure and an escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

Among the events contributing to market instability were reports of attacks on Riyadh airport in Saudi Arabia and on a tanker vessel off the coast of Oman.

By the close, WTI had gained 1.37% to US$93.11 per barrel, while Brent advanced 1.36% to US$105.96 per barrel, after reaching intraday highs of US$93.82 and US$106.87, respectively.

Brent crude remaining above US$100 per barrel continues to fuel inflation concerns at a time when investors are attempting to anticipate the Federal Reserve’s next policy decisions.

According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, markets were assigning a probability of more than 81% to the Fed holding interest rates unchanged at its 27–28 October meeting.

Expectations for subsequent months remain contingent on the trajectory of energy prices, inflation, and economic activity — all factors that could influence future Fed monetary policy decisions.

Major Bank Results Open Earnings Season

Investor attention now turns to third-quarter corporate earnings, with reporting season set to begin on Tuesday, 13 October, when several of the largest US banks are scheduled to release their results.

JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are among the institutions due to report on Tuesday. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock follow on Wednesday, alongside companies from other sectors including Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth.

Expectations are elevated. According to data attributed to FactSet, analysts are anticipating year-on-year earnings growth of 29.5% for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter, up from the 26.7% estimate recorded at the end of June.

If confirmed, that performance would represent the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth exceeding 25%.

Banking sector results will be closely watched as investors seek to assess the evolution of trading revenues in financial markets and the effect of broader economic conditions on institutional profitability.